Forecasting a secure future
Using foresight and backcasting methodologies to plan social development.
Imagining a secure future
Experts and stakeholders assembled by ESCAP used a ‘foresight methodology’ to develop four possible future scenarios of social protection systems in Asia and the Pacific by 2040, contingent on whether (i) the status quo is maintained, (ii) incremental change is introduced, (iii) progressive change is pursued or (iv) radical change is achieved.
The preferred scenario—A Protected Space—created through progressive change, and deemed practical yet ambitious, is of a future with agile and modern social protection systems that withstand and adapt to risks and vulnerabilities. The systems work in harmony with technological innovations to deliver more sustainable solutions for a carbon neutral future.
Stepping stones to a protected space
Experts then used a ‘backcasting methodology’ to figure out what steps would be needed between 2040 and now to arrive at the preferred future. To achieve the preferred future, legislative and policy frameworks will be needed that deliver well designed contributory and non-contributory schemes together with supportive institutional mechanisms and financing.
Drawing on existing good practices and research, governments, regional bodies and stakeholders should look to the future to design and create comprehensive systems that fit national circumstances. Widely held national consultations would facilitate identification, sequencing and coordination of necessary actions and make clear the roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders.
The following digital illustrations were generated by Professor Ora-Orn Poocharoen on 22 November 2023 using ChatGPT 4.0 based on written input provided by participants in the Expert Group Meeting titled Social Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2024: Future Proofing Social Protection held on 21 and 22 November 2023. Participants took part in causal-layered analysis as part of a strategic foresight exercise. As part of the exercise, participants were asked to imagine their social protection systems as a vehicle, perhaps a ship sailing in unknown waters and unpredictable weather.
Bold visions, bleak actions
Scenario 1 — status quo is maintained
Despite policymakers’ ambitions and knowledge, social protection systems have for too long been neglected. Social protection systems are not equipped with the resources or capacity to mitigate the risks, especially those emanating from megatrends, that have been on the horizon but are now imminent.
Just keeping afloat
Scenario 2 — incremental change is introduced
Social protection systems offer some form of protection and continually add components (albeit on an ad hoc basis) to meet people’s needs. However, these systems, with their incremental improvements, are neither robust enough to adequately protect people during extreme disasters nor sustainable in the long run
Protected space
Scenario 3 — progressive change is pursued
Agile and modern social protection systems are built to withstand and adapt to risks and vulnerabilities. They work in harmony with technological innovations to deliver more sustainable solutions for a climate neutral future. Despite potential storms ahead, and a persistent threat of poverty, people look to a brighter future, confident in their resilience, because their policymakers pursued progressive change.
A portal for all
Scenario 4 — radical change is achieved
Social protection is like a portal that can appear anywhere to transport people to the destination of their choice. Technology and human-centric design are used to create tailored social protection systems that are accessible for all persons of all ages. The environment is flourishing. Certain that they will not fall into poverty, which by now is a thing of the past, individuals dedicate their efforts to advancing their ambitions and communities.